Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area plunged 34.9 per cent in February compared to the same month a year ago as buyers adjusted to new mortgage rules and government policy interventions, the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) said. Prices tumbled too, with the average sales price for all housing types falling 12.4 per cent…
When you combine Trudeau’s Selfie politics with Morneau’s silver spoon trust fund mentality, you get ongoing budget deficits, careless spending on wasted programs and social agenda’s with no economic merit. Couple that with Trump’s war on everybody, and our lack of true leadership, and voila. Stock market downturns, investors pulling out of Canadian projects and infighting between provinces for political gain without consideration for economic fallout.
So what’s a person to do? Well if you’ve invested using time-tested fundamentals you weather the storm. When deploying new capital, go for fixed income instruments that have low volatility and meager returns. Now is not the time to bet the Farm.
Stay Calm and Build your Cash reserves.
Traditionally, the end/beginning of the year sees billions in new cash poured into RRSP’s and TFSA’s. If you’re anything like me you want to put those funds to work right away. Unfortunately there is too much going on right now to warrant a knee-jerk investment. Stocks in general are fully priced or overvalued, and both short-term and long-term bonds are not offering substantial returns. The best advice for those out there looking at deploying capital is to wait it out. The following issues need to work their way through the system:
- Interest Rate Hike
- Mortgage Rules
- Ontario’s Minimum Wage Change
We at BBT see a negative or Bear Market on the horizon. Once all or a majority of the uncertainty has cleared we believe there will be a good buying opportunity. Good companies will always adjust and thrive in a hyper-competitive marketplace. Our job is to pick the ones that do this consistently and invest when the time is right. And that time is not now.
Full disclosure, I use Royal Bank and own Royal Bank stock.
Recently Royal Bank did something that changed the game for small to medium-sized businesses alike. Very quietly they installed two brand new features that automates the electronic collections process previously only available through standalone software.
The first feature is Interact Collections, yes collections, not just payments. You can now issue requests for payment to registered “payee’s” and have them pay you using the familiar Interact System. It allows room for Invoice numbers and comments to provide detail to the recipient.
The second feature is the introduction of Wave to produce invoices and send them with the built-in option to pay via various means. This is a great tool for mom and pop businesses, allowing them to send professional looking electronic invoices to their customers and get paid. I still would not recommend using Wave to handle your bookkeeping for a few reasons. The main one being that you still need an Accountant to work with you and your business to handle the various remittances, payroll and tax issues that go along with it.
That being said, I have tried both and liked them. There is a free trial period for both options, and available upgrades for various Wave features, but the free version does the job.
Good work Royal.
Elon Musk is not a fan of Donald Trump, yet he pulled a classic bait and switch this past week. I for one have lost track of how much money he’s lost and the number of promises he’s broken. I can’t explain why someone would voluntarily pay a deposit for a car that has no set delivery date. I guess these are the same people who pay $1300 for a piece of glass that is used more for games than as a phone. I digress. So instead of concentrating on maximizing production to fill orders for existing customers, Elon diverts attention from all his failings and problems by throwing up another shiny ball. Actually is was two balls this time. An Electric Semi and a Roadster that are both cost prohibitive and unnecessary.
Elon is a smart guy but is not focused nor a business person. He is more suited as the head of R&D than the head of a large corporation. This is more ammunition for those with the capital and will to pull off a sure bet. Shorting Tesla is a no-brainer. The only catch is having the resources to do it.
What do you say Bill?
This is a family run company who’s only raison d’etre is to make themselves wealthier, and provide votes for Quebec friendly politicians. All this is at the expense of the Dumb Canadian Taxpayer. Yes I say dumb because no one ever really cares until it affects them personally.
When something is given to you without you earning it, do you really value it? It’s like finding a $20 bill on the sidewalk. Do rush to the bank to save it , do you use it to pay a bill or do you spend it right away?
We as a country and Quebec as a Province have poured billions into a company that does not care about those outside its class A structure. If it did, it would have made profits and been profitable at any cost. Instead, they know that they will be propped up by different levels of government in the name of saving Canadian Jobs. If you did the math, we could have funded a national drug program or a national daycare program with all the lost funds poured into Bombardier.
Now, because there were no strings attached with our money, they went looking for another Sugar Daddy in Airbus. Airbus is a shrewd company who paid nothing for the deal and got all the Intellectual Property that we as Canadians paid for.
Welfare is something for nothing. You (and we as a Country) get what you pay for. Remember this next time you’re at the voting booth.
Recently, we’ve increased our positions in a few key holdings including CIBC, Genworth Mortgage Insurance and Blackberry. Initially the returns were positive, lately, based on the news cycle or lack thereof, their values have decreased somewhat. Nothing materially has changed for either one of these holdings, including Blackberry, which made an unexpected profit even when you back out the Qualcomm payment.
Analysts are paid to overreact, we do not. These businesses are sound, make money, and will make more money.
Our Criteria for investing is simple:
- Good or Service is Vital (Need)
- High Barriers to entry (Financial moat)
- Good Management
- Strong Balance Sheet and Cash position
The true mark of an investor versus a trader is how long they can sit still when things are not going in their favour at the moment. If you panic and “limit your losses” you are a trader, if you believe in your analysis and see these swings as temporary, then you are an investor. Limiting your losses also means wiping out future returns.
Stay Calm and Carry on.