When it comes to job security, where else can you be wrong most of the time and still be employed? These two professions have the luxury of formulating “educated guesses” with no accountability for their outcome. How many times have you planned an evening out or a quick trip based on forecasted weather, only to be let down when it was nowhere near what was promised.
On a more serious note, economists and more specifically central bankers like Steven Poloz and Mark Carney are glorified weathermen. Steven Poloz’s insistence that lowering the benchmark rate to .5% was going to offset Oil and Gas’s demise by propping up manufacturing in Central Canada. #Epicfail. All it did was spur more borrowing for investment in the housing sector which is in a “bubble”. Mark Carney during his tenure never really did anything, including change rates. All he did was talk. Now that the BOE has Mr. Mark, he is doing much of the same thing which is nothing. What people are slowly realizing is that these “forecasts” are just guesses. Like those who bet with the “experts” on Britain never leaving. Unless you are held accountable for your actions your words mean nothing. True professions like Doctors, Lawyers, and yes Accountants, are held to professional codes of conduct and practice standards. If they fail to live up to these there are consequences and disciplinary processes in place. It’s a matter of public trust.
So next time you hear someone’s forecast or projection, ask yourself what they’re on the hook for if it’s wrong.
‘Till next time